The World Bank has adjusted its 2026 growth projection for Nigeria to an average of 4.1 per cent, lower than its earlier forecast of 4.4 per cent.
Similarly, the development finance institution also revised the country’s growth outlook for 2027 to 4.2 per cent, while projecting growth 4.3 per cent. for 2028
In its just released ‘April 2026 Africa Economic Update’ titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa, released on Wednesday, the bank said the revised outlook reflects relatively stable macroeconomic conditions alongside a gradual recovery in investment across the country.
It anticipated that the Services sector, particularly information and communications technology (ICT), Finance, and Real estate, would remain the principal driver of the nation’s economic growth in the next three years.
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However, the bank anticipated that agriculture and industry would expand more slowly due to structural constraints.
In the latest report, the World Bank projected that inflation would fall from 23 per cent in 2025 to 14.9 per cent in 2026 and further ease to 10.7 per cent by 2028 due to delayed policy tightening effects and improved supply conditions.
According to the bank, although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
While noting that rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances but may be partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty, the bank cautioned that business sentiment and reform momentum could be dampened by commodity price fluctuations, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections.
An analysis of the report on regional level indicated that economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, unchanged from 2025, but lower by 0.3 percentage points compared to the World Bank’s October 2025 forecast.
The Bank clarified: “Across countries in the region, several large economies have been revised downward in 2026, notably Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia.
“Overall, about 60 per cent of the countries in the region (29 of 47) recorded downward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts”, it added.
Despite the downgrades, the bank noted that regional economic activity had been benefitting from improved macroeconomic stabilisation, including better inflation control, stronger domestic currencies, and easing fuel and food prices.
It maintained that these developments had helped bolster private consumption and investment, while enhanced policy frameworks are strengthening credibility and resilience.
In addition, the Bretton Woods institution reported that higher commodity prices, particularly for precious metals and beverages, had supported SSA’s export earnings and government revenues.
Noting that trade has remained resilient despite ongoing global tensions, the World Bank anticipated that the gains could be threatened by rising external risks such as the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which may drive up energy prices, disrupt trade, and revive inflationary pressures.
Analyzed from an expenditure perspective, the bank predicted that the continent’s growth in 2026 would be largely driven by private consumption and investment.
This is even as it forecasted that household consumption would contribute 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, down from 1.8 per cent in 2025, while investment is expected to contribute 1.0 per cent, up from 0.9 percent.
The bank anticipated that the Services sector would account for about half of Africa’s total growth in 2026, led by Finance, ICT, Wholesale and Retail trade, and Tourism.
