–Forecasts 4.2% Growth In 2027
The World Bank has retained its Nigeria’s economic growth rate forecast for 2026 at 4.1 percent and projected that the economy would grow at 4.2 percent in 2027.
The Bretton Woods development finance institution made these forecasts in its just published ‘2026 Global Economic Prospects’ report.
It noted that the conflict in the Middle East had triggered a new wave of whirlwind in the global economy, raising energy prices and inflationary pressures as well as slowing growth prospects across emerging and developing economies worldwide.
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According to the report, the bank anticipated that global growth would moderate to 2.5 percent in 2026 from 2.9 percent in 2025, citing weaker prospects for economies dependent on energy imports and countries directly affected by hostilities.
It clarified: “The global economy is facing another major shock. The conflict in the Middle East has triggered sharp increases in energy prices, renewed inflationary pressures, and fueled expectations of tighter monetary policy.”
Similarly, the Washington D.C-based financial institution predicted that global activity was expected to strengthen from 2027 as energy supplies recover, monetary easing resumes and trade conditions improve.
The World Bank also anticipated that growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) would slow to 3.6 percent this year, with per capita income growth expected to weaken further this year.
It also projected that per capita incomes in developing economies excluding China and India, were not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until after 2028, implying a prolonged period of lost income convergence with advanced economies.
On risks, the bank reported that risks in the global economic landscape remained tilted to the downside as “a renewed escalation of hostilities or more prolonged disruptions to commodity flows could further raise commodity prices, intensify inflationary pressures and food insecurity, trigger financial stress, and lower growth.”
The Bretton Woods institution projected that if energy supply disruptions become more severe and were accompanied by significant financial stress, global growth could fall to as low as 1.3 percent in 2026.
While urging policymakers to balance efforts to control inflation with measures aimed at supporting economic activity and preserving fiscal sustainability, the bank also highlighted growing concerns over rising sovereign debt levels across developing economies.
Specifically, it maintained that public debts in emerging economies had been rising since the global financial crisis, leaving many countries more vulnerable to higher interest rates and debt-servicing costs.
It reported: “Rising government debt poses a key challenge for EMDEs, as it leads to higher interest rates, higher debt-service payments, and a greater likelihood of debt distress.”
The World Bank also noted commodity-exporting countries were contending with additional fiscal risks due to volatile commodity prices as their revenue windfalls are often spent rather than saved during boom periods.
To ensure sustained economic growth, it advised the national governments to prioritize stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, improved public spending efficiency, better debt management and stronger fiscal systems to improve resilience against future shocks.
