…Charts 5-Point Policy Roadmap To Transformational Growth
Economic experts at the Bashir Adeniyi Centre for International Trade and Investment (BACITI) of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), a leading socioeconomic think tank in the country, have strongly stated that current reforms by the Federal Government to holistically transform the nation’s economy and position it on the path of sustainable growth require some essential policy components to achieve the desired goals.
Researchers at the Centre, in its just published ‘BACITI Economic Insight’ November 2025 edition with the theme “The Road To A $1 Trillion Economy By 2030: Beyond Reform”, took a comprehensive appraisal of the government’s fiscal and monetary policy reforms over the past few year and pointed out that while reforms remains desirable for the economy, there was the need for the fiscal and monetary authorities to complement the ongoing measures with other initiatives to boost the economic growth.
According to them, while Morocco, and Ethiopia have all experienced fluctuations driven by global and domestic dynamics. Nigeria’s GDP trajectory stands out, marked by a sharp decline in 2024 followed by a modest rebound in 2025.
- Advertisement -
Specifically, the analysts noted that from $668 billion in 2019, Nigeria’s GDP fell to $252 billion in 2024, recovering slightly to $285 billion in 2025 due largely to exchange rate unification, naira depreciation, subsidy removal, and inflationary pressures following fiscal reforms.
The BACITI experts maintained that the contraction remained painful as the adjustments represented structural corrections aimed at long-term resilience, projecting that with its vast market, young population, and reform momentum, Nigeria remains central to Africa’s economic future and well-positioned for a stronger rebound once macroeconomic stability takes firmer root.
On the achievements recorded by the government over the past few years, the researchers reported that Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic reforms had improved fiscal liquidity and reduced structural distortions but that they have yet to unlock productivity growth.
Citing statistical data to support their report’s findings, they stated that in 2024, real GDP grew by 3.4%, outpacing the 2.1% population growth rate while inflation averaged 26%, significantly eroding household welfare.
The experts pointed out that scholars like Dani Rodrik (2004) and Justin Lin (2012) remind us that true structural transformation requires more than macro-stability, it depends on productive investment, technology absorption, and institutional coherence.
Currently, they reported that Nigeria’s fiscal reforms had expanded government revenues, but manufacturing output has stagnated with Services dominating the GDP composition, while Industrial growth remained weak, highlighting an imbalance reform alone cannot resolve.
In addition, the BACITI economic researchers noted that Trade facilitation remained a cornerstone of the current reform agenda, as the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) had launched the Unified Customs Management System (UCMS)—‘B’Odogwu’ to replace NICIS with a homegrown digital clearance system.
They reported that while this has improved transparency and revenue efficiency, significant logistics bottlenecks persisted based on the World Bank reports that clearing goods in Nigerian ports takes an average of 19 days, compared to 7 days in Ghana and 5 in Morocco.
The analysts lamented that despite the NCS’ transformational reform initiatives, the challenges of port congestion, fragmented inter-agency coordination, and inadequate infrastructure continued to undermine digitization gains. While commendable progress has been made, more systemic reforms are needed to align trade facilitation with Nigeria’s trillion-dollar goal.
On Investment Flows and the Confidence Deficit, the analysts pointed out that though the economics of trust reform can fix the rules, but only trust can mobilize investment.
Stressing that a $1 trillion economy must be built, not declared, the experts listed key requirements to achieve this as functional factories, ports, rules, and results.
The analysts canvassed: “Nigeria must shift from reform as reaction to reform as architecture—ensuring that every macroeconomic adjustment leads to tangible productivity gains. The difference between a reforming and a transforming nation lies in coordination, credibility, and consistency. In this sense, the road to a trillion-dollar economy is less about ambition and more about execution discipline.
“Reform is the headline; transformation is the fine print. Nigeria’s trillion-dollar ambition is achievable, but only if reform evolves into transformation –if the state moves from managing scarcity to enabling productivity. As Bismark put it, “you can grow your revenue and still have unhappy people.”
“True growth is not fiscal; it is functional –the capacity of an economy to turn policy into prosperity. This insight draws from the maiden edition of the NIIA Trade and Investment Forum, made possible through the generous partnership of Zenith Carex International, whose continued commitment to trade, logistics, and development is helping drive Nigeria’s economic transformation”, they added.
Noting that Nigeria’s growth potential is increasingly regional with states like Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, and Kano functioning as autonomous economic hubs, the BACITI researchers pointed out that for a robust economic growth, subnational competitiveness matters as investors interact with locations, not just national governments.
The experts stated: “Lagos’ policy consistency, PPP-driven infrastructure, and trade-friendly institutions offer a blueprint for other states. As Mrs. Folashade Medebem (Commissioner, Lagos State Ministry of Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment) emphasized, federal ambitions must align with state-level ecosystems. Competitive federalism, where states specialize and attract investment independently, can transform Nigeria’s economic geography.”
In the report, the analysts observed that Nigeria’s growth had been stuck between policy reform and production inertia as the organised private sector (OPS) continued to contend with multiple taxation layers, unreliable electricity (5,000 MW for 230 million people), and frequent policy reversals.
Citing Prof. Olawale of the University of Ibadan argument to justify their position, the BACITI researchers maintained that the missing link in the nation’s economic structural transformation comprised policy coherence; the alignment of fiscal, monetary, and trade policies.
The experts clarified: “Customs reform is meaningless without efficient transport. Exchange rate unification achieves little without export capacity. Prof. Olawale estimates that achieving a $1 trillion economy will require sustained annual growth of 15–19%, attainable only through industrial deepening and value-chain integration.
“Current export data confirms structural fragility: crude oil accounts for 62.9% of total exports; LNG 9.4%; raw materials 5.1%; manufactured goods 1.4%; and agriculture 8.3%. Nigeria remains dangerously dependent on primary commodities. Diversifying into high-value manufacturing and services is no longer optional—it is existential”, they advocated.
To move the economy from reform to the path of sustainable productivity and growth, the researchers advised the federal and state governments to adopt a five-point core pillars, namely Policy Coherence; Productive Investment, by channeling subsidy savings into manufacturing, logistics, and agribusiness; and Human Capital development, by scaling vocational and STEM education and align training with industry needs.
Others are Subnational Empowerment, through the creation of coordinated federal–state investment zones and export clusters; and Institutional Credibility, which could be embedded in transparent, rule-based systems to reinforce regulatory consistency.
On the way forward, the BACITI experts concluded: “Reform can fix the rules, but only trust can mobilize investment. A $1 trillion economy must be built, not declared. It requires factories, ports, rules, and results.
“Nigeria must shift from reform as reaction to reform as architecture—ensuring that every macroeconomic adjustment leads to tangible productivity gains. The difference between a reforming and a transforming nation lies in coordination, credibility, and consistency.
“In this sense, the road to a trillion-dollar economy is less about ambition and more about execution discipline. Reform is the headline; transformation is the fine print. Nigeria’s trillion-dollar ambition is achievable, but only if reform evolves into transformation –if the state moves from managing scarcity to enabling productivity. As Bismark put it, “you can grow your revenue and still have unhappy people.” True growth is not fiscal; it is functional –the capacity of an economy to turn policy into prosperity”, they stressed.
