…All Food Inflation Remains Highest YoY In Ogun, Lowest In Akwa Ibom
As predicted by most analysts, Nigeria’s inflation rate decelerated in October 2025, with the headline inflation rate easing to 16.05%, representing 1.96% percent points decline when compared to the 18.02% rate recorded in the preceding month.
The latest figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS’) Consumer Price Index (CPI) October 2025’ report reflected that the dip in the general price level in the economy in the month under review sustained the slowing down trend of the nation’s inflation rate over the past months, particularly since the rebasing of the CPI early this year.
According to the newly released statistics agency’s data, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the Headline inflation rate was 17.82% lower than the 33.88% rate recorded in October 2024, indicating that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in the month under review compared to the same month in the preceding year though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.
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However, the report showed that month-on-month (MoM), the nation’s headline inflation rate stood at 0.93%, which was 0.21% higher than the 0.72% rate recorded in September 2025, implyingthat in October 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in September this year.
The NBS further reported that the percentage change in the average CPI for the 12-month period ending October 2025 over the average for the previous 12-month period was 22.02%, showing a 10.24% decrease compared to 32.26% recorded in October 2024.
When disaggregated based on Urban trend in the month under review (October 2025), on a year-on-year basis, the Urban inflation rate declined to 15.65%, showing 20.73% points lower compared to the 36.38% recorded in October 2024.
However, on a month-on-month basis, the Urban inflation rate was 1.14% in October 2025, up by 0.4% compared to 0.74% in September 2025, while the corresponding 12-month average for the Urban inflation rate was 22.68% in the month under review, indicating 11.84% points lower compared to the 34.52% reported in October 2024.
Similarly, the statistics agency reported that the Rural inflation rate in October 2025 was 15.86% on a year-on-year basis, which was 15.73% points lower compared to the 31.59% recorded in the corresponding period of last year.
On a month-on-month basis, the Bureau’s data on the Rural inflation rate in October 2025 showed that it stood at 0.45%, down by 0.22% compared to 0.67% rate in September 2025 just as the corresponding twelve-month average for the Rural inflation rate in the month was 20.81% and 9.42% points lower compared to the 30.24% recorded in October last year.
The CPI report indicated that the Food inflation rate in October 2025 was 13.12% on a year-on-year basis, which was 26.04% points lower compared to the 39.16% rate recorded in October 2024, and the Bureau attributed the significant decline in the annual food inflation figure technically to the change in the base year.
It further clarified that, however, on a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in October 2025 was -0.37%, up by 1.21% compared to -1.57% September 2025 due to rate of increase in the average prices of Onions (Fresh), Fruits (Oranges, Pineapple), Shrimp, Groundnuts (Unshelled), Vegetables (Ugu, Okazi leaf), and Meat (Goat meat, Cow tail, Liver), among others.
The NBS reported that the average annual rate of Food inflation for the 12-month period ending October 2025 over the previous twelve-month average was 21.96%, which was 16.16% points lower compared to the average 38.12% annual rate of change recorded in October 2024.
On the “All items less farm produces and energy” or Core inflation trend, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produces and energy, the statistics agency disclosed that the rate stood at 18.69% in October 2025 on a year-on-year basis, showing a decline of 9.68% when compared to the 28.37% recorded in October 2024.
It added that on a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 1.416% in October 2025, down by 0.001% compared to 1.417% in the preceding month, just as the average twelve-month annual inflation rate was 21.61% for the twelve-month period ending October 2025, which was 4.51% points lower than the 26.12% recorded in October last year.
The Bureau also reported that on state profiles that the All Items Inflation in the month under review reflected that on a YoY basis the rate was highest in Ekiti (20.14%), Nasarawa (18.97%), and Zamfara (18.81%), while Bauchi (9.99%), Anambra (11.72%), and Gombe (11.73%) recorded the lowest rise in Headline inflation on a YOY basis.
The CPI report, however, revealed that on a MoM basis, October 2025 recorded the highest increases in Niger (4.90%), Anambra (4.90%), and Enugu (4.75%), while Edo (-4.00%), Katsina (-3.26%), and Adamawa (-3.10%) recorded a decline in the MoM inflation.
On Food Inflation rate across the states, the report showed that in the month under review, Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Ogun (20.85%), Nasarawa (19.96%), and Ekiti (19.70%), while Akwa Ibom (3.98%), Katsina (4.15%), and Yobe (4.29%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis.
It expatiated, however, that on a MoM basis, October 2025 Food inflation was highest in Bauchi (6.77%), Abuja (5.11%), and Niger (4.84%), while Katsina (-7.72%), Oyo (-5.89%), and Taraba (-4.89%) recorded a decline in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis.
The statistics agency clarified that when analysing price movements on state profiles, it is essential for users of the data to note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns that vary across States and locations.
It maintained that in view of this, the weight assigned to a particular Food or Non-Food item may differ from State to State, making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading.
