Nigeria’s frontline economic analyst, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, on Monday projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate could drop further to 18 per cent in November based on the prevailing micro and macroeconomic factors in the broad economy.
Rewane, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, made this forecast while speaking at the October edition of the Lagos Business School (LBS) breakfast session, hinging his projection increased importation during the December festive season.
Noting that Nigeria’s economic recovery remains strong, the renowned economist described the recovery as real, using the nation’s real GDP growth of 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025, the highest in four years since Q2 2021, when it grew by 5.01 per cent, to justify his projection.
However, he anticipated that a ceasefire in Gaza could lower global oil prices, potentially worsening Nigeria’s fiscal deficit.
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This is even as he predicted that at $60 per barrel, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit could climb towards 4.5–5 per cent of GDP.”
Rewane noted that, based on the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on the nation’s GDP in Q2 2025, out of 46 tracked economic activities, 32 expanded, 10 slowed, and four contracted. Industry grew by 7.45 per cent, services by 3.94 per cent, and agriculture by 2.82 per cent.
On monetary policy, the economist forecasted that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its next meeting in November would likely sustain its recent cautious approach, predicting a modest 25 basis point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.75 per cent per annum by the committee to sustain disinflation.
Similarly, he predicted that the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of 75 per cent on non-TSA funds would tighten liquidity in the money market, but a lower MPR could reduce the federal and state governments’ debt service burden by about N1.5 trillion in 2026.
Rewane also explained that with gold prices exceeding $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, Nigeria’s external reserves in gold could become the country’s second-largest reserve asset.
“The weaker the U.S. dollar, the higher the price of gold,” he said, predicting that Nigeria’s Eurobond issuance in November would be cheaper than current rates.
While projecting sustained growth through October and November, driven by forex stability and steady currency appreciation, Rewane noted that increased travel demand, boosted by business and tourism, would support passenger traffic, though tightening U.S. visa rules could dampen demand from emerging markets like Nigeria.
Reflecting on challenges to the nation’s economic growth, he listed the rising cost of governance as a major impediment to capital accumulation and investment, urging fiscal restraint, adding that “for the recovery to be sustainable, there is an urgent need to reduce the cost of governance.”
To consolidate on the current growth of the nation’s economy, he advocated the need for power sector debt forbearance, incentives for domestic investment, improved tax collection, and the concessioning of airports, seaports, and refineries by the government.
