The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 to 3.4 per cent, representing 0.4 percentage points increase from the 3.0 per cent it earlier forecasted in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
The new figure, which was released in its July 2025 Update, reflected the Fund’s growing confidence in the country’s short-term economic prospects amid global uncertainty and ongoing domestic macroeconomic challenges.
Specifically, the multilateral finance institution estimated that Nigeria would maintain a growth rate of 3.4 per cent in 2025 before moderating slightly to 3.2 per cent in 2026, indicating 0.5 percentage points upward for the 2026 projection compared to April’s outlook.
The July 2025 Update showed that despite the upward revision, Nigeria’s growth outlook remained below the regional average for Sub-Saharan Africa, which is projected to expand by 4.0 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026.
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The IMF, however, projected that Nigeria would record higher growth than South Africa, whose forecast remained unchanged at 1.0 per cent for 2025 and 1.3 per cent for 2026.
Globally, the Bretton Woods institution revised its growth expectations for 2025 to 3.0 per cent, up by 0.2 percentage points from the April estimate, citing improved financial market conditions and reduced trade-related pressures.
It clarified: “Global growth is projected at 3.0 per cent for 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026. The forecast for 2025 is 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the reference forecast of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook and 0.1 percentage point higher for 2026.”
The Fund attributed its brighter outlook for the global economy to “stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs; lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April; an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar; and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.”
Similarly, it projected that global headline inflation rate would dip to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026, warning that this outlook does not include differences across countries, with inflation expected to remain above target in the United States and more subdued in other climes.
