…List Conditions For Medium-Term Trajectory Of Nigeria’s Economy
Investment experts at Bancorp Securities Limited, a leading investment research and consulting services providing firm in Nigeria, have expressed their expectation of positive momentum to persist in the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) this week based on commencement of the corporate earnings season and anticipated interim dividend declarations by listed entities on the exchange.
The experts, in the firm’s ‘Weekly Stock Recommendation 21st-25th July 2025’ circulated to our correspondent on Monday, noted that this momentum could be spurred as the market continued to await the outcome of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting this week, which could influence near-term sentiment.
However, the analysts pointed out that with valuations expanding and gains becoming more concentrated, they believed investor behaviour may turn more selective, adding that in this environment, stocks with strong fundamentals, stable earnings, and a consistent track record of dividend payments are likely to remain in focus during the trading sessions this week in the local bourse.
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They recalled that last week, the market closed positively for the eighth straight week, buoyed by strong buying interest in large-cap names such as DANGCEM, NESTLE, and BUACEMENT while the NGX-ASI appreciated by 4.31% week-on-week, settling at a new all-time high of 131,585.21 points, while market capitalization increased by N3.48 trillion to N83.2 trillion.
Data from the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) indicated that trading activity also saw a significant boost, with total volume and value up by 224.62% and 364.48% respectively, as 17.49 billion units were traded at N500.76 billion across 142,082 deals.
On the technical side, the local bourse’s indicators reflected strengthening market momentum, as the Up/Down Volume Ratio (UD Ratio) stood at 2.94x (down from 4.47x the prior week), still reflecting that more volume is flowing into advancing stocks than declining ones, albeit at a softer pace.
The Bancorp Securities’ experts, however, cautioned on the outlook of the nation’s economy that “Nigeria’s short-term macroeconomic path remained a delicate balance between encouraging statistical trends and persistent structural realities.
“While the continued decline in headline inflation may provide some comfort to policymakers, the underlying dynamics, particularly rising month-on-month price pressures and food supply disruptions, suggest that inflation remains far from tamed.
“With the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for July 21–22, the Central Bank is expected to hold a cautious stance. A rate hold appears likely, allowing the disinflation trend to consolidate, while retaining flexibility in case core or food inflation accelerates further in Q3”, they added.
In conclusion, the analysts predicted that while recent data suggested short-term stability, the medium-term trajectory of the economy would depend on policy consistency, security improvements in food-producing regions, and the depth of structural reforms aimed at unlocking productivity across sectors.
