The World Bank has reaffirmed its earlier projection that the Nigerian economy would grow by 3.6% this year, despite the whirlwinds in the global economic landscape largely triggered by President Trump’s fiscal measures in merchandize trades.
The Breton Woods institution made this projection in its bi-yearly Global Economic Prospects report published on Tuesday.
It the latest report, the bank reviewed downwards its forecasts for most economies, including the United States, China, and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions, from the levels it projected them to grow six months ago, before assumption of office of President Donald Trump.
The World Bank also revised downward its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, hinging its position on higher tariffs on trade as well as the uncertainty posed by significant headwind for nearly all economies.
The Washington D.C-based multilateral finance institution cautioned that its projected global growth rate could be weaker if global trade tensions continue to escalate further.
On Nigeria’s economic performance forecast, the bank projected: “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 3.6 per cent in 2025 and to an average of 3.8 per cent in 2026-27. Following monetary policy tightening in 2024 to address rapid currency depreciation, inflation is projected to decline gradually.
“Domestic reforms have helped spur investment, supporting growth in the services sector, especially in financial services and information and communication technology.
“Services activity will continue to be the main driver of growth, while the industrial sector will remain constrained by subdued crude oil production as last year’s slight rebound wanes”, it added.
The World Bank also predicted that Nigeria and SSA per capita income would expand by an average of 1.6 per cent a year in 2025-27, with growth in 2025 revised down by 0.4 percentage points.
It clarified: “This pace would mean that, in terms of living standards, the region would fall even further behind other emerging markets and developing economies, excluding China and India. These per capita income gains will remain inadequate for significantly reducing extreme poverty in the region, home to most of the world’s poor.
“Per capita income growth in SSA is also expected to remain uneven, with incomes falling in some countries, particularly those plagued by violent conflict. By 2027, per capita income in over one-fourth of the region’s economies will not have recovered to their pre-pandemic levels. Lifting per capita incomes and reducing extreme poverty in the region are likely to remain difficult as the jobs challenge intensifies in the coming years. The projected increase in SSA’s working-age population is set to rise rapidly over the next five years and almost double between 2025 and 2050, the largest numerical increase that any region has recorded over a 25-year period”, the bank added.
It would be recalled that earlier in the year, the World Bank projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.6% in 2025, consolidating on an estimated expansion of 3.4% last year, as key macroeconomic reforms begin to impact positively on the nation’s economy.
