Researchers at CAPE Economic and Research Consulting firm, a leading economic research and analytics company, have projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate may moderate at 2.11% in the fourth quarter of this year amid sustained macroeconomic headwinds.
The analysts, in the firm’s latest Economic Newsletter Volume 2, Issue 11, November 2023′ report published by the firm noted that over the past quarters output growth continued to be resilient despite several headwinds confronting it.
Specifically, they identified high energy prices, exchange rate volatility arising from foreign exchange supply shortage, insecurity, infrastructure deficit, structural bottlenecks, and elevated cost of production as amongst the factors that continued to weigh on output growth and expected to further slowdown albeit remain positive in 2023Q4.
In addition, the analysts noted that several multinationals have abandoned domestic production in 2023Q3 and 2023Q4 due to rising cost of production and challenges with repatriation of profit with implications for output growth and employment.
On the economy’s prospects in the fourth quarter, the experts projected: “Our medium-term forecast show that output growth would moderate to 2.11 per cent in 2023Q4.
“We, however, anticipate an improvement in output growth going into 2024Q1, as seasonal benefits in the agricultural sector kicks and the gains from improvement in the industrial sector with the coming on stream of companies such as the Dangote refinery by 2024 Q2”, the CAPE experts added.
