The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has retained its oil market forecast in 2023 for 2024 amid forecasts by analysts of bright economic outlook.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, the oil cartel maintained that for 2024, world oil demand would grow at 2.2 million barrels per day (b/pd), for an average of 104.4 million b/pd, which is the same it predicted in its November oil market assessment report.
The OPEC hinged its latest oil demand growth forecast on better-than-expected economic performance so far this year and blaming “exaggerated concerns about oil demand growth” for the recent slump in oil prices.
In the November report, the organisation noted that oil market fundamentals remained strong with Chinese crude imports set to increase to a new annual record in 2023, despite “overblown negative sentiment in the market regarding China’s oil demand performance, and global oil market in general.”
In the December report, it maintained that today the oil price plunge in recent weeks “was fuelled by exaggerated concerns about oil demand growth, which negatively impacted market sentiment.”
Over the past months, OPEC had anticipated that world oil demand would stabilize at an average of 102.1 million bpd, driven by demand from non-OECD countries.
For 2024, the oil cartel predicted: “Oil demand is expected to be supported by resilient global GDP growth, amid continued improvements in economic activity in China.
“Continuous improvements in economic activity, steady manufacturing, and transportation activity mostly in China, Other Asia, and the Middle East, as well as in India and Latin America, are expected to account for the bulk of oil consumption”, OPEC added.
It further noted that the “Economic growth seen in the first three quarters this year in most key economies had been better than expected.”
OPEC sees global economic growth at 2.9% this year and “as this robust economic growth is expected to extend into 2024, the global economic growth is forecasted at 2.6 per cent for the year 2024.”
