…IMF Forecasts 33.1% Debt-To-GDP Ratio For Nigeria In 2027
Nigeria’s total public debt for the federal and subnational governments rose by 10 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) to N159.27 trillion at the end of Q4 2025, compared to the N144.67 trillion recorded at the end of the corresponding quarter of 2024, the Debt Management Office (DMO) has reported.
The Q4 2025 figures released in a statement by the Office on Thursday represented an increase of N5.98 trillion over the N153.29 trillion public debt stock as of Q3 2025) and N14.6 trillion higher than the debt in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The DMO clarified that the public debt profile comprised the domestic and external debt stocks of the federal and subnational governments and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
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According to the statement, the total domestic debt as of the end of Q4 2025 stood at N84.84 trillion ($59.11 billion), while the total external debt stock was N74.42 trillion ($51.85 billion).
The DMO data reflected that the total domestic debt stood at N74.38 trillion in December 2024, implying the Q4 2025 stock increased by N10.47 trillion or 14.1 percent y-o-y, while foreign debt increased by N4.14 trillion from N70.29 trillion recorded in December 2024.
The Office disclosed that out of the total domestic debt, the federal government owed N80.48 trillion – higher by N2.67 trillion compared to the Q3 2025 debt stock while states and the FCT’s debt marginally increased to N4.36 trillion in Q4 2025, up from N3.96 trillion in the previous quarter.
A further analysis of the public debt stock showed that for foreign debt, the Federal Government accounted for N66.26 trillion ($51.85 billion) of the debt stock while states and the FCT had N8.15 trillion ($5.68 billion) as their fiscal obligations for repayment.
The DMO maintained that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) official exchange rate of N1,435.25 kobo/$1 as at December 31, 2025 was used in converting external debt to naira.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s Debt-To-GDP ratio would rise to 33.1% in 2027
The Fund’s projections were contained in its latest ‘Fiscal Monitor Report’ launched on during the ongoing IMF-World Bank spring meetings Wednesday in Washington D.C.
According to the IMF report, the rise to 33.1 per cent is from 32.3 percent expected in 2026. The country’s debt-to-gross domestic product for 2025 was put at 35.3 per cent.
The IMF forecast came barely a few days after President Bola Tinubu requested the National Assembly to approve a new tranche of external loan totalling $6 billion.
