The World Bank has reported a surging trend in Nigeria’s poverty level, saying that poverty in Nigeria rose to 63 per cent in 2025, despite sundry reform initiatives embarked on by the Federal Government to lift millions of poor Nigerians out of the poverty trap.
The latest figures contained in the just published ‘Nigeria Development Update April 2026’ report titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development”, by the bank showed that the real impact of the reforms based on the recent macroeconomic improvements on household welfare remained minimal nationwide.
The NDU report which was presented on Tuesday in Abuja reflected that the share of Nigerians living below the poverty line increased from 56 per cent in 2023 to 61 per cent in 2024, before peaking at 63 per cent in 2025.
The rise in the poverty rate to about 140 million Nigerians occurred despite the moderation of inflation for some months last year.
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The World Bank noted that although inflation dipped last year, particularly food inflation, it reported that general price level remained high enough to erode purchasing power and worsen living conditions for many households.
The bank maintained that household incomes in the year under review did not grow fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining.
The Breton Woods institution further clarified that the persistence of poverty reflected the cumulative impact of earlier inflation surges that had already weakened real incomes before the recent moderation in prices.
It reported that global shocks, especially the Middle East conflict, contributed to rising living costs through higher energy, food, and transport prices, noting that these developments are adding pressure to inflation and poverty, including via food prices, thus worsening the situation for low-income households that spend a large share of their income on basic needs.
Apart from inflation, the World Bank noted that the structure of Nigeria’s economic growth, which has been largely driven by services and industry, while agriculture – which employs more than half of the poor – has lagged behind, had also constrained poverty reduction.
It stated that this imbalance had limited income gains among the most vulnerable segments of the population, thereby slowing the pace at which economic growth translates into improved living standards.
Despite the surge in poverty rate in the year under review, the bank projected a gradual decline beginning from 2026 as inflation continues to ease and macroeconomic conditions stabilise.
It forecasted: “Despite elevated poverty levels, a gradual decline is expected from 2026 as inflation continues to ease.”
It anticipated that poverty, measured against the national poverty line, would slightly decline in the near term and could decline to about 59 per cent by 2028, based on lower food inflation and moderate economic growth.
