…Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Hits $8Bn In 2024 – NESG
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the World Bank Group and other economic experts have projected that sustained implementation of the current fiscal and monetary policy reforms and modification of some measures, where necessary, by the Federal Government would impact positively on the nation’s economic growth this year.
The NESG’s leadership and the local and international experts made this projection on Thursday during the launching of the economic group’s ‘2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report with the theme “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond” in Lagos.
The report provides an in-depth analysis of Nigeria’s reform agenda, initiated in mid-2023, which aimed to tackle longstanding structural challenges and drive sustainable economic growth. As the report underscores, the country is now at a critical juncture, with the focus shifting towards economic stabilization while sustaining reform momentum.
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In his opening address at the event, the NESG Chairman, Mr. Niyi Yusuf, reflected on the achievements recorded by the government and other stakeholders to grow the economy 2024, noting that despite the progress made, there was still much to be done to achieve sustainable growth of the economy this year.
He said: “Last year marked a significant step toward economic transformation as key conditions began to stabilize. However, there’s still much work to be done. Macroeconomic indicators show that Nigeria is yet to achieve full stability. Inflationary pressures, rising food prices, infrastructure deficits, and exchange rate depreciation remain persistent challenges.”
While highlighting the key achievements in the economy during the year, the NESG chairman said that “Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of $8 billion in 2024, compared to $1 billion in 2023. The economy expanded by 3.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 2.5% in the same period the previous year.
“Despite these gains, inflation averaged 33.2% in 2024, driven by extreme climate conditions and rising food costs. Over 33 million Nigerians are now food insecure due to natural disasters and high food prices”, Yusuf added.
On the way forward to frontally address the challenges in the economy and position it on the path of sustainable growth in the years ahead, the economic expert canvassed the need for government to streamline its policies.
He maintained: “The optimal path to stabilization requires a consolidation and alignment of monetary, fiscal, social safety, trade, and regulatory strategies. This alignment will transition Nigeria to the Consolidation Phase of its Economic Transformation Roadmap, creating an improved policy environment and attracting investments in growth-enhancing sectors.”
The NESG’s Chief Economist and Director of Research, Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, who presented the outlook and offered projections for the future, said: “A GDP growth rate of 5.5% is achievable if Nigeria continues with stability-focused reforms.
“However, inefficient policy implementation and economic constraints could limit growth to 3.4%, and a reversal of reforms could see it drop to 2.7%. The quality of policy execution in 2025 will determine whether Nigeria reaches its stabilization goals or falls short”, the expert added.
Omisakin also emphasized the importance of continuing the foreign exchange (FX) price discovery exercise initiated in 2023 by the monetary authorities, stressing that exchange rate stability will be crucial and that the NESG believes “operating at an exchange rate of N1,200/$1 will significantly contribute to economic stability.”
The CBN Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, in his keynote address commended the NESG’s contributions to Nigeria’s socioeconomic discourses and that the launch of the report highlights NESG’s commitment to fostering economic development.
According to him, the apex bank is taking additional transformative steps, including the establishment of a Compliance Department which will be operational by February 2025to align with global standards and enhance transparency.
Cardoso also hinted of plans by the CBN to launch a Foreign Exchange Code aimed at ensuring transparency and fairness in the FX market.
He assured: “We are committed to reducing the disparity between bureau de change and official exchange rates while fostering exchange rate stability to attract foreign investments and support fiscal operations.”
Speaking at the forum, World Bank Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr. Samer Matta, emphasized the need to mitigate the impact of reforms on the poor and vulnerable, pointing out that “reforms are tough choices, but scaling up and financing social interventions is crucial for ensuring a sustainable future,” he said.
Similarly, the IMF Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr. Christian Ebeke, spoke on the inflationary pressures in the economic caused by deficit financing, noting that “creating money not backed by output has fueled inflation. Improved fiscal discipline is necessary to address this issue.”
Also, the Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, in his address at the forum, noted that “borrowing is a better approach to deficit financing than printing money.
He maintained: “Tax reforms, such as improved VAT collection and harmonization of tax processes, show that Nigeria is on the right path. These measures will enhance revenue generation and fiscal sustainability.”
In his paper at the forum, a macroeconomics expert at Pan Atlantic University, Professor Bright Eregha, shared insights on Nigeria’s growth trajectory, saying the “we’ve seen real growth over the past three quarters, and I expect the average growth for 2024 to be higher than in recent years. If we sustain this momentum, 2025 could deliver even better outcomes.”
In his concluding remarks at the event, NESG CEO, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, emphasized the importance of governance and partnerships. “Nigeria must take itself seriously. Governance must be at the heart of our conversations. Strategic partnerships, collaboration, and coordination are critical for achieving the transformative shifts we need,” he said.
The 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report serves as a roadmap for policymakers, business leaders, and stakeholders, charting the path toward economic stabilization and inclusive growth.
