The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has projected that the country’s manufacturing sector will record a real growth of 3.1% in 2026, with its contribution to real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising to 10.2%, subject to effective implementation of key policy reforms by the government.
In its just published Outlook for 2026, the association maintained that the projected improvement in the performance of the real sector would depend largely on the execution of incentives under the new tax laws, the operationalisation of the National Single Window Project and the purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in alignment with the Nigeria First policy framework.
Commenting on the growth projections for the sector, Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, stated that the outlook implied a gradual recovery for the sector, which recorded a real growth rate of 1.25% in Q3 2025.
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The industrialist said: clarified: “Real growth is projected to reach 3.1 per cent, while contribution to real GDP is expected to rise to 10.2 per cent. These gains, however, hinge on the effective execution of incentives under the new tax laws, the operationalisation of the National Single Window Project and the purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in close alignment with the Nigeria First policy framework.”
While also predicting improvements in key macroeconomic indicators that directly affect manufacturers, Ajayi-Kadir said the Naira was expected to appreciate further to between N1,300 and N1,400 to the USD in 2026, to be driven largely by anticipated recovery in global oil prices, stronger external reserves, improved export earnings, increased foreign investment and higher remittance inflows.
The Director-General also projected sustained moderation of inflation to 14 per cent in 2026, aided by easing food prices, stable energy costs and exchange rate appreciation while also anticipating that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will cut the Monetary Policy Rate to about 23% in line with the disinflationary trend, to stimulate credit expansion and output growth.
This is even as he maintained that lower lending rates and the completion of the banking sector recapitalisation exercise would improve access to credit for manufacturers, strengthen investment and boost capacity utilisation.
On the broader economy, MAN projected overall GDP growth of the economy to about 4% in 2026, driven by higher oil output, improved fiscal space, expansion in the financial and manufacturing sectors and increased consumption in Q4 2026.
