The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its 2025 growth projection for Nigeria at 3.2%, indicating the multilateral institution board’s growing confidence in the Federal Government’s ongoing reforms and potential positive implications for the nation’s economic recovery.
The Fund, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report titled ‘Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain (January 2025)’, published at the weekend, maintained that to sustain the country’s economic growth and public debt sustainability, the Federal Government needed to strengthen and consolidate its fiscal policies.
The Washington D.C-based institution reported that growth in Nigeria was projected to gradually decline in 2026 to 3%, adding that the 3.2% projection for 2025 indicates that emerging markets like Nigeria showed relative stability in 2024, contributing to the broader growth trajectory.
However, the IMF retained its the economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, while raising its 2025 growth forecast to 3.3%, up from 3.2% in October 2024, and that growth for 2026 is also expected to remain at 3.3 per cent.
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The Fund clarified: “The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 WEO, primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions in other major economies.”
On the global inflation rate trend, the IMF forecasted that global headline inflation was expected to slightly drop to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, based on developments in advanced economies than in emerging markets and developing economies.
To tame the inflation rate, the multilateral finance institution advised monetary authorities globally to adopt monetary policy measures aimed at restoring price stability while also supporting economic activity and employment in their jurisdictions.
The IMF further expatiated: “In economies where inflationary pressures persist and the risk of unexpected increases is high, a restrictive stance should be maintained until there is clearer evidence that inflation is returning to target sustainably.
“In economies in which activity is cooling fast and inflation is on track to durably go back to target, a less restrictive stance is justified. In either case, fiscal policy should consolidate to put public debt on a sustainable path and restore the space needed for more agile responses”, it added.
In addition, it harped on the imperative for national government to prioritise fiscal policy consolidation and align it with the goal of ensuring public debt sustainability while opening options for additional responsive policy actions.
