….Targets $64 Crude Oil Benchmark
After months of uncertainty and anxiety over macroeconomic and other whirlwinds in the country, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) on Wednesday approved the 2026-2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for submission to the National Assembly.
Under the new fiscal framework, the Federal Government is targeting 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil production in 2026, even though it sets 1.8 million barrels per day in the worst-case scenario, as well as a crude oil benchmark of $64 per barrel for the fiscal year.
The approved MTEF also projected spending of around N54.5 trillion ($37.71 billion) and total federal revenue estimate of N34.33 trillion, thereby anticipating a N20.1 trillion deficit, or 3.61% of GDP for FY 2026. It estimated that debt service would cost N15.9 trillion in the fiscal year.
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Giving key insights to the budgetary provisions after the FEC meeting in Abuja during an interaction with journalists, the Minister of Planning and Economic Development, Atiku Bagudu, said that non-recurrent debt expenditure was set at N15.27 trillion while the Naira exchange rate was set at N1,512/$1 for the fiscal year.
Bagudu disclosed that the FEC approved a crude oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026 but that 1.8 million barrels per day would serve as the basis for budgetary planning.
He expressed confidence that with the gradual macroeconomic stability being witnessed in the economy, it had become imperative to sustain the ongoing reforms by the Federal Government.
The minister noted that once the outlined measures were fully implemented, along with the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF-FSP), they will catalyse stronger and more sustained economic growth in the country.
A breakdown of the Federal Government’s fiscal projections by major accounting heads shows that statutory transfers will be about N3 trillion, debt service expenditure will be N10.91 trillion, and non-recurrent expenditure (personnel cost) will be about N15.27 trillion while deficit is projected at N20.1 trillion, which is 3.61% of the estimated GDP.
In addition, the FEC approved the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which guides spending limits and helps ensure efficient fiscal system for economic growth.
President Bola Tinubu solicited the support of the National Economic Council (NEC) in the current drive by his administration to curb revenue leakages arising from illegal activities in the oil and gas sector as well as in the exploitation of critical minerals.
Similarly, he harped on the need for huge investments in critical national infrastructure by all tiers of governments and other measures to boost domestic production through the implementation of the administration’s renewed work development programme.
