…Forecasts $450Bn GDP For Nigeria By Year End
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), one of the leading organized private sector (OPS) advocacy groups in Nigeria, has welcomed the recent publication of the nation’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which is anchored to a new base year of 2019.
The Centre, in a Note issued by its Director/CEO, Dr. Muda Yusuf, on Sunday, August 3, noted that the re-basing exercise represented a significant milestone in Nigeria’s economic management, as it enhances the relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of national economic data, and aligns Nigeria’s statistical reporting with international best practices.
According to the OPS group, GDP re-basing is a critical statistical exercise that updates the base year used for calculating national output, ensuring that the structure of the economy is accurately reflected in line with current realities.
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It pointed out that by adopting 2019 as the new base year, Nigeria’s GDP figures now incorporated recent changes in consumption patterns, production technologies, and sectoral dynamics, thereby providing a more realistic and comprehensive picture of the economy, which is essential for effective policy formulation, planning, and investment decisions.
Specifically, the CPPE listed the key value proposition of the rebasing exercise as Improved Investment and Planning Decisions: The availability of more current and robust data enables both public and private sector stakeholders to make better-informed decisions. Investors, policymakers, and development partners can now rely on more accurate statistics to assess opportunities and risks; and Enhanced Macroeconomic Analysis: The re-basing allows for more credible calculation of key GDP-related ratios, such as debt-to-GDP, tax-to-GDP, revenue-to-GDP, credit-to-GDP, and fiscal deficit-to-GDP. These ratios are vital for assessing the health and sustainability of the economy, and for benchmarking Nigeria’s performance against global peers.
Others are, International Comparability: The updated GDP figures facilitate more meaningful international comparisons, providing clearer guidance for foreign investors and supporting Nigeria’s integration into the global economy. This transparency is expected to boost investor confidence and attract foreign direct investment; and Credible Sectoral Insights: The re-basing exercise has improved the accuracy of sectoral contributions, revealing shifts in the economic landscape and highlighting emerging sectors that were previously underrepresented.
Yusuf expressed the CPPE’s position on the need to ensure that future re-basing exercises be conducted more regularly and in a timely manner, in line with global standards, to maintain the relevance and credibility of Nigeria’s economic data.
On the Overview of the Q1 2025 GDP report by the statistics agency, the CPPE stated that the newly rebased figures reflected Nigeria’s nominal GDP was reported at N372.82 trillion as of 2024, representing a 41% increase over the 2019 nominal GDP. The economy recorded a growth rate of 3.38% in 2024. In Q1 2025, GDP growth moderated slightly to 3.13%, with total output for the quarter at N94 trillion, bringing Nigeria’s cumulative GDP at the end of Q1 2025 to approximately N466 trillion, or an estimated $300 billion.
As the Nigerian economy progressively recovers from the shocks of the current economic reforms, the CPPE projected that by year-end, Nigeria’s GDP could reach an estimated $450 billion, barring any major disruption in the economy.
It noted that economic activities in the first quarter were typically subdued compared to the other quarters, which may account for the observed moderation in Q1 GDP growth.
Reflecting on sectoral performance and policy issues as they related to the latest rebased GDP, the Centre stated that the latest GDP numbers highlighted the need to strengthen productivity in critical sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and trade as these sectors are essential for economic inclusion, job creation, self-reliance, economic security, and diversification.
However, it noted that their current growth rates remain below expectations, as agriculture grew by only 0.7% and manufacturing by 1.7% in Q1 2025, adding that to optimize their performances, these sectors require targeted interventions to unlock their full potential and drive sustainable development.
The Centre recalled that the sectoral performance in Q1 2025 showed that 37 sectors recorded growth (many however slowed); nine sectors contracted, and three sectors receded in output.
It noted that the top-performing sectors included financial services (15.3%), oil refining (11.51%), transportation (14.08), ICT (7.4%), and metal ores (25%) while other sectors, including Livestock (-16.7%), Fishing (-0.21%), Textiles (-1.63), Coal Mining (-22.3%), Quarry & Minerals (-21.55%), Plastics and Rubber (-3.2%]) Iron & Steel (-0.35%), Air Transport (-0.81%) contracted, and air transport, textiles, and coal mining sectors receded following their consistent contraction over the past few quarters.
In addition, CPPE stated that in terms of sectoral contributions to the GDP in the quarter under review included trade, crop production, real estate, ICT, construction, petroleum and gas, food and beverage, financial institutions, and manufacturing.
Also, it noted that the oil sector contributed 3.97% to GDP, while the non-oil sector accounted for 96.03% indicating the sustained dominance of the non-oil sector in the Nigerian economy even as productivity remained a major challenge for the sector.
According to the OPS group, the share of agriculture improved from 22.12% to 25.8%, and the service sector’s contribution increased to 53.09% from 50.22% pre-rebasing, while Real estate sector ranking rose to third among GDP contributors, following crop production (17.58%) and trade (17.42%), with real estate at 10.78%, ICT at 6.18%, and crude oil at 5.85%.
It noted that despite the non-oil sector’s dominant contribution to GDP, its share of government revenue remained disproportionately low. This indicates persistent productivity and revenue mobilization challenges in the non-oil economy, which must be addressed to ensure fiscal sustainability and inclusive growth.
To improve the performance of the nation’s economy on a sustainable basis, the Centre recommended some policy measures, including Targeted Support for Underperforming Sectors to those that contracted, and those experiencing slow growth, adding that addressing structural challenges, improving access to finance, tackling insecurity and fostering innovation will be critical to stimulating recovery and growth.
It also canvassed Sustained Support for High-performing Sectors to sustain and further improve their output, leveraging their potential as engines of growth, revenue generation and job creation; and Bridging the Revenue Gap to address the disconnect between the non-oil sector’s significant GDP contribution and its relatively lower contribution to government revenue.
The Centre pointed out that strengthening tax administration, broadening the tax base, optimizing non-tax revenues and promoting formalization of economic activities in the informal sector remained essential steps to bridge the revenue gap
In addition, the CPPE advocated for more frequent and timely GDP re-basing exercises to ensure that economic data remains current and relevant for policy and investment decisions, as well as continuous engagement with stakeholders, including government agencies, private sector participants, researchers, and development partners, describing this as vital for effective policy formulation and implementation.
The CPPE commended the NBS for achieving the rebased GDP milestone despite its resource limitations, and restated its commitment to supporting evidence-based policymaking and investment decisions and urges stakeholders to leverage these improved statistics for strategic planning, investment decisions, and policy development.
It maintained that continuous engagement and timely updates would ensure that Nigeria’s economic data remains robust, reliable, and fit for purpose, guiding the nation toward sustainable growth and development.
