The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), a leading organized private sector (OPS) advocacy group, has projected that Nigeria is poised to move from macroeconomic stabilisation to a phase of sustainable growth in 2026.
In the latest Policy Note titled ‘Review of the Nigerian Economy in 2025 and Outlook for 2026’ released on Sunday by the Director/Chief Executive of the Centre, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the group projected between 4.0% and 4.5% Gross Domestic Growth (GDP) growth for the country in 2026, complemented by moderating inflation and stronger non-oil sector performance.
The renowned economist noted that the monetary and fiscal reforms by the Federal Government this year laid a solid foundation for stability, with exchange-rate predictability, easing inflation, and improved investor confidence representing the indices of the impact on the broad economy.
The CPPE boss projected that if the reform momentum remained sustained, Nigeria would transition more decisively from stabilisation to growth..
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The group recalled that the year 2025 marked a turning point in Nigeria’s economic trajectory as the Naira traded against the USD within the N1,440–N1,500/US$ band, with periodic appreciation boosting business confidence and easing imported inflation.
It further noted that Inflation slowed sharply from 24.48% in January to 14.45% by November, aided by currency stability and improved supply conditions. Consumer sentiment strengthened as several food items and imported goods recorded outright price declines while business confidence also improved, with the NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Index remaining positive for most quarters of the year.
On fiscal performance at national and subnational levels, despite stabilisation gains, the CPPE observed that this year, the federal fiscal performance remained weak as debt-service obligations constrained budget implementation just as the oil sector underperformance led to revenue shortfalls.
The group noted that while the approved 2025 budget assumed US$75 per barrel oil price and 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) production, the actual outcomes fell short, with oil averaging US$66 per barrel and production closer to 1.66 mbpd, undermining capital expenditure.
The CPPE pointed out that in contrast, sub-national governments recorded stronger fiscal outcomes, with improved liquidity, better internally generated revenue (IGR), and more effective capital project execution.
On the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the outgoing (2015) year, the group reported that Services sector remained Nigeria’s growth driver, accounting for 53% of GDP by Q3 2025, while the Telecommunications, Financial Services, Trade, Construction, And Real Estate led the growth trend.
It also added that the Manufacturing sector grew by just 1.25%, constrained by power deficits, logistics costs, and weak access to finance while Agriculture sector grew by 3.79%, contributing 31.21% of GDP, but insecurity and low productivity limited its export potential.
The CPPE projected a stronger growth in 2026, driven by Services sector to be aided by easing inflation, adding that moderating inflation could allow for gradual monetary easing, lowering interest rates and stimulating private investment.
This is even as it predicted that the Capital markets were expected to benefit from the potential listing of Dangote Refinery, which could deepen liquidity and attract portfolio inflows, stressing that policy credibility remains strong, reinforcing investor confidence and capital inflows.
Despite the promising outlook for Nigeria’ s economic growth this year, CPPE warned of some downside risks, including Persistent insecurity affecting agriculture and logistics; Oil price and production volatility; and Structural constraints such as high power and logistics costs; that have the potential of undermining the growth projections.
Other are Debt service pressures currently estimated at over N15 trillion in 2026 (about 50% of projected revenue); External geopolitical tensions impacting trade and capital flows; Pre-election fiscal and political uncertainties; and Pushback against tax reforms that could undermine revenue expectations.
In his concluding remarks, the CPPE boss stated: “If reform momentum is sustained and security challenges are effectively addressed, 2026 could mark the beginning of a more robust growth phase with tangible improvements in living standards.”
