…Task Nigerian Govt On Resilience-Sustenance Policy Imperatives
CAPE Economic Research and Consulting, one of the leading economic think-tanks in Africa, has projected a cautious optimism in the global economic outlook for this year, forecasting a global GDP growth of roughly 3.0 percent amid the current worrisome fiscal and other whirlwinds across the geopolitical landscape worldwide.
In the firm’s ‘Economic Newsletter Volume 4-Issue 9- September 2025’ released today and circulated to our correspondent, the researchers, having critically appraised the macro and microeconomic dynamics of the various economies globally over the past months, maintained that price pressures were expected to remain heightened and remain above pandemic levels as tightening efforts continue to crystalise worldwide over the months ahead.
While noting that the global outlook for 2025 is one of cautious optimism tempered by material downside risks, the experts projected roughly 3.0 percent global GDP growth this year, adding that baseline is vulnerable to persistent tariff escalation, renewed geopolitical flare-ups and fragile investor sentiment.
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They recalled that protectionist measures, notably sustained U.S. tariff actions threatened to fragment trade and perpetuate supply-chain dislocations; simultaneous tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East continue to inject volatility into energy and commodities markets and to erode confidence.
Similarly, the firm’s analysts noted that at the same time, elevated sovereign and private debt burdens had been constraining the global fiscal space, limiting the scope for large countercyclical fiscal responses, while central banks contended with delicate trade-off: re-anchoring inflation expectations without excessively undermining consumption and investment.
Specifically, the researchers observed that against this challenging global backdrop, Nigeria had exhibited noteworthy resilience as the nation’s macroeconomic stability had been buttressed by a combination of tighter monetary settings, greater fiscal discipline and targeted structural reforms that have begun to restore investor confidence and rebuild external buffers.
They cautioned that nevertheless, the durability and inclusivity of the recovery remained conditional: downside risks; from oil-price shocks driven by expanded U.S shale output to persistent supply-side bottlenecks and security challenges, could blunt momentum and worsen fiscal metrics if left unaddressed.
On the way forward for Nigeria, the CSEA researchers maintained that the policy imperative for the government remained clear and should be adopted as Nigeria’s Q2 2025 output growth is expected to remain positive and marginally higher than Q1 2025 as the economy stabilises from reforms.
The experts advocated: “Converting resilience into sustained and inclusive growth will require accelerating economic diversification, deepening domestic capital markets, and institutionalizing stronger fiscal–monetary coordination.
“Complementary measures—including targeted infrastructure investment, reforms to improve the business environment, and prudent contingent-liquidity management—will be essential to strengthen buffers, attract long-term capital, and position the economy to benefit from a gradual easing in global uncertainties”, the CSEA researchers stressed.
