Researchers at the Centre for the Study of Economies of Africa (CSEA) have projected that Nigeria’s GDP growth rate would reverse the negative trend in third quarter (Q3,2020) as business activities continue to expand following the lifting of lockdown measures by the government.
The analysts gave this forecast in the Centre’s latest Nigeria Economic Update Issue 34 sourced by BRTNews.ng
Recalling that in Q2, 2020 the nation’s GDP was estimated to be -6.10%, declining by 8.22 percentage points from 1.87% to -6.10% between Q1 and Q2 this year, the experts reported the Q2 GDP performance represented the first negative growth since the recession in 2016/2017.
The report stated: “The fall was largely driven by a slowdown in international and domestic activities occasioned by lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Further disaggregation of the data shows that the non-oil sector GDP decreased by -6.05% (first negative decrease since 2017Q3).
Also, the oil sector experienced a higher negative growth, declining by -6.63% within the same period.
“Contractions in growth were also recorded in the industry (-12.05%) and service sectors (-6.78%) while the growth rate in the agriculture sector remained positive (1.58%)”, the report added.
The CSEA analysts projected that given that the strict lockdown measures were lifted at the end of the second quarter, and Nigeria’s major trading partners – Europe, the United States, and China – have reopened their economies, the GDP growth rate in Q3, 2020 is expected to be more favourable than the preceding quarter.
To ensure this, they advised that “the coverage and targeting of the existing interventions for the vulnerable households and affected businesses should be improved in order to enhance their reach.”
