Analysts Forecast Cautious Trading In Nigerian Exchange

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Investment experts at Bancorp Securities Limited, a leading investment and stockbroking firm in Nigeria, have expressed expectations that investors will be cautious about the stocks to trade in this week  based on the anticipated monetary policy decisions that would be taken tomorrow  by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on the benchmark and other lending rates.

The analysts, in the firm’s ‘Weekly Stock Recommendation 22nd-26th 2025’, recalled that last week, the  equities market sustained its upward trend, driven by rallies across three of the five sector indexes even as the market All-Share Index (ASI) advanced by 0.92% week-on-week to close at 141,845.35 points, lifting the year-to-date return to 37.81%.

According the experts, the market capitalization gained N822.25 billion, settling at N89.74 trillion.

However, they noted that despite the overall index gain, trading metrics weakened as both total volume and value traded declined by 14.20% and 14.53% respectively, with 2.73 million units exchanged at N85.19 billion across 127,284 deals.

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The investment researchers reported that from a technical standpoint, the weekly up/down (UD) volume ratio dropped to 0.78x from 3.02x in the prior week, indicating that selling volume outweighed buying strength.

Meanwhile, the TRIN rose to 1.03x from 0.64x, signalling a shift toward selling pressure and reflecting a more cautious tone among market participants.

Reflecting on the trading trend last week and other prevailing micro and macroeconomic factors in the economy, the analysts projected that investors would trade cautiously in the market this week to avoid losses.

The experts projected: “The equities market is likely to trade cautiously ahead of the MPC decision tomorrow, with investors positioning based on expectations that rates will be held steady to sustain the disinflation trend.

“The improving inflation backdrop supports consumer stocks, while banks may see mixed reactions as interim results and dividend declarations continue to drive sentiment. Technical signals show limited buying conviction, suggesting gains could remain selective, concentrated in large-cap and fundamentally strong counters.

“Overall, we expect trading to stay positive but measured, with outcomes from the MPC providing the next clear catalyst”, they added.

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