As recent micro and macroeconomic indices of Nigeria’s economy continued uptick trend on the back of Federal Government’s sustained fiscal and monetary reforms, Fitch Ratings, a leading global rating agency, has revised Nigeria’s outlook to Positive from Stable, affirming its Long Term Issuer Default Ratings at B, with great potential of improving investor confidence in the economy.
The rating agency Fitch reported that revised outlook reflected Nigeria’s policy framework and growing confidence that the country’s reform momentum would continue.
Commenting on the improving outlook of the economy, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, in a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday reflected that the nation’s gross reserves surged to $54.9 billion as at September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion in middle of April 2024.
The minister stated that Positive Outlook indicated a possible rating upgrade if current trends are sustained.
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According to Fitch, the improved reserves is attributable to increased formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows and higher export receipts and remittances.
It stated that better reserve quality had strengthened resilience to external shocks and projected current account surplus of 6.4 percent of GDP in 2026.
The rating agency also cited greater naira flexibility and disinflation and projected Nigeria’s real GDP growth of 4.3 percent in 2026, up from 4 percent in 2025, and expected growth above 4 percent in 2027 and 2028 driven by non-oil activity.
It noted that Nigeria had met the OPEC crude oil production target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while ramp up of domestic refining is reducing refined product imports and forex demand. Average inflation is expected to ease to 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
On fiscal and financial sectors, Fitch’s latest projection expects ongoing tax reforms to raise Nigeria’s non-oil revenue to GDP ratio and projects general government debt to average 32 percent of GDP from 2026 to 2028, well below B median of 56 percent. It also acknowledged Nigeria’s liquid domestic debt market and bank recapitalisation, with many banks holding capital adequacy ratios above 20 percent.
Oyedele said the Positive Outlook validated the desirability of the ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and tax reforms, adding that the government’s medium term ambition is to position Nigeria on path to investment grade to lower cost of capital, crowd in private investment and create jobs.
He acknowledged areas flagged by Fitch Ratings as requiring modifications, including still high inflation relative to peers, low government revenue and high interest cost share, stressing that the reform programme is designed to address them.
The minister listed priorities to sustain reform momentum and transparent forex regime, raise revenue through new tax laws, improve fiscal governance, advance structural reforms for non-oil growth and translate macro stability to shared prosperity through food security, jobs, human development and support for small businesses.
Oyeedele noted Fitch guidance that rating upgrade could follow sustained disinflation, stronger reserves and stronger non-oil revenue mobilisation.
With the latest Fitch’s rating of the economy, all the leading global rating agencies have reported on Nigeria’s improving economic performance this year. For instance, S&P Global upgraded Nigeria to B from B- in May, Moody’s revised outlook to Positive in August, while FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status from September 21, 2026.
