In what promises a better outlook for Nigeria’s economic performance projections this year, the World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6% in 2025 as the impact of current fiscal and monetary policy reforms begin to show signs of a more stable macroeconomic environment in the country.
It also anticipates that Nigeria’s growth will strengthen to 3.8% by 2027 if the implementation of the ongoing reforms by the Nigerian government is sustained.
The World Bank Group made this projection in the Spring 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse, which was released barely 24 hours after its counterpart, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth downward to 3.0%.
The World Bank’s projection is premised on improved performance in non-oil sectors, particularly services such as financial services, telecommunications, and information technology, as well as easing inflationary pressures and improved business sentiment.
The report partly read: “Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in Nigeria. It is expected to increase from 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 3.6 per cent in 2025, and slightly increase to 3.8 per cent in 2026–27.
“The gradual recovery of the Nigerian economy along the forecast horizon is driven primarily by the service sector—specifically, finance, information and communications technology services, and transportation—and, to a lesser extent, a rebound in oil production that converges to its OPEC+ quota”, it added.
Unlike the IMF, the World Bank foresees a moderation in the nation’s inflation in the years ahead. For instance, while the Fund projected that Nigeria’s inflation would average at 26.5% this year and surge to 37.0% in 2026, the World Bank projected the rate to ease to 22.1% in 2025, down from 26.6% in 2024, and further moderate to 15.9% by 2027.
Both institutions’ projections are based recalculations following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in January 2025.
According to the statistics agency, Nigeria’s headline inflation fell from 34.80% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January, before inching up to 24.23% in March, reflecting persistent cost-of-living pressures, especially food inflation.
On the external front, the World Bank expects Nigeria’s current account surplus to slightly rise from 9.2% of GDP in 2024 to 9.4% by 2026, driven by reduced imports, increased remittances, and improved oil export earnings.
The World Bank’s projections contrast with the IMF’s forecast, which estimated the nation’s surplus to narrow to 6.9% in 2025 and 5.2% in 2026, hinging its prediction on the potential downside risks from global oil prices and external demand.
